AUD: 2 Key Drivers To Continue Undermining AUD; What’s The Trade? – Nomura

The Australian dollar enjoyed positive news out of the land down under and advanced quite nicely. But it can return to the downside as well, especially if GDP disappoints. Here is the view from Nomura:

Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:

Nomura FX Strategy Research discusses AUD outlook into year-end and thinks that the relative AUD underperformance theme in recent months can continue into 2018.

“There are two overarching drivers that should continue to undermine the AUD: (1) the ongoing monetary policy divergence between the patient RBA and other major central banks; and (2) the bias for a lower Australian terms-of-trade. The combination of moderating growth in China, push for supply-side reforms and deleveraging, and still rising global supply should weigh on Australian-centric commodity prices, such as iron ore.

In line with this view, Nomura recommends staying long EUR/AUD (via options), in light of its positive outlook for the eurozone and flow dynamics and as the ECB continues to normalize policy.

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