The Australian dollar moved up nicely on upbeat data but was unable to close at the highs. The jobs report is the main event of the week, but the mood in markets may have a significant impact as well. Here are the highlights of the week and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.
The RBA left the interest rates unchanged as widely expected and did not rock the boat. The GDP report gave a boost to the Australian dollar with an increase of 1%, better than expected and reflecting robust growth. Also, Australia’s retail sales beat early estimates with an increase of 0.4%. In the US, data was OK but the USD ignored it. Concerns about global trade crept in towards the end of the week as US President Trump adopted a more aggressive approach. The A$, a risk currency, was unable to close at the highs.
AUD/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
*All times are GMT
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
Aussie/USD began the week on the upside, eventually hitting the 0.7675 resistance line (mentioned last week). However, the pair lost ground towards the end of the week.
Technical lines from top to bottom:
0.7730 capped the pair in early April. 0.7675 provides some support in March and is another stepping stone.
Further below, 0.7640 was a stubborn cushion in March and April. The fall below this line proved its strength. 0.7610 was the peak of an upwards move in late May.
0.7560 is the next level to watch after it was the recovery level in early May. 0.7520 was a swing low in late May.
0.7430 was an initial low in late April and it is followed by 0.7410, an old line from 2017. Further down, 0.7375 is notable.
I am bearish on AUD/USD
The Australian economy looks good, but the risk-off sentiment triggered by the looming trade wars could weigh heavily on the Australian Dollar.
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