AUD/USD Forecast Sep. 4-8 2017

The Australian dollar gradually ascended towards 0.80, but seems to hesitate. The upcoming week is jam-packed: a rate decision, retail sales, and GDP, all in one week. Here are the highlights of the week and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.

When North Korea fired a missile over Japanese territory, the safe haven yen advanced but the Aussie did not move too much. The traditional “risk” asset remained unscathed. Chinese data looked upbeat, with rises in the official and non-official PMIs. The US dollar fluctuated quite a bit, but less so against the A$.

Updates:

AUD/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  • MI Inflation Gauge: Monday, 1:00. The Melbourne Institute publishes a monthly measure of inflation, filling in the gap. The government releases CPI figures only once per quarter. A rise of 0.1% was seen in July. A similar figure is likely for August.
  • Company Operating Profits: Monday, 1:30. Corporates have seen big gains in profits in the past year. An increase of 6% was recorded in Q1 2017, beating expectations. Another rise is likely, but it will probably not be somewhat lower.
  • ANZ Job Advertisements: Monday, 1:30. The Australia and New Zealand Banking Group has shown a rise of 1.5% in advertisements for jobs in July, a slower pace than beforehand. Another increase is projected.
  • AIG Services Index: Monday, 23:30. The Australian Industry Group’s PMI-like survey has shown a healthy level of growth in the services sector at 56.4 points. It could slide now.
  • Current Account: Tuesday, 1:30. Australia’s current account has been in the red, but the deficit is squeezing. A level of 3.1 billion was seen in Q1 2017. We now get the figures for Q2.
  • Rate decision: Tuesday, 4:30. The Reserve Bank of Australia has maintained the interest rate at 1.5% since cutting it to this level in August 2016. No change is expected now. The big question for market is: will Phillip Lowe and his colleagues try to talk down the Aussie?
  • Australian GDP: Wednesday, 1:30. Australia releases its GDP data only once per quarter. The economy grew by 0.3% in Q1 2017, better than expected but a slow rate in general.
  • AIG Construction Index: Wednesday, 23:30. The construction sector is on fire according to AIG’s measure: a score of 60.5 reflects very robust growth. We could see a drop now.
  • Retail Sales: Thursday, 1:30. Consumer are expanding their purchases in the past three months, with a growth rate of 0.3% in June. We now get the data for July.
  • Trade Balance: Thursday, 1:30. Australia enjoys a trade balance surplus in the past 8 months, after suffering from deficits beforehand. The surplus squeezed to 0.86 billion in June. We now get the July data.
  • Home Loans: Friday, 1:30. The number of home loans rose in the past two months, but the pace fell short of estimations. Is the sector weakening once again?
  • Chinese Trade Balance: Friday, 2:00. China is Australia’s No. 1 trade partner and changes in its level of imports has a big impact on the economy. China’s US dollar denominated trade surplus stood at 46.7 billion in July.
  • AUD/USD Technical Analysis

    The Australian dollar made its way quite gradually towards the 0.80 level (mentioned last week).

    Technical lines from top to bottom:

    0.83 was a swing high seen in early 2015 and is our top line. 0.8165 was another swing high, back in May 2015.

    0.8065 is the most recent high seen in 2017. It is followed by the psychological round level of 0.80.

    0.7920 was the low point the pair reached after the pair moved to the highs. The round number of 0.7810 provided support in August and replaces the veteran 0.7835 level.

    Below, we find 0.7740, that was a high point in June 2017 and also beforehand. 0.7635 was a stepping-stone on the way up, also in June.

    Even lower, we find 0.7565 was a low point before the pair shot higher in July. The last line, for now, is 0.7515.

    I am bullish  on AUD/USD

    The Aussie is showing resilience to geopolitical tensions and enjoys a strong economy. It seems poised to take advantage of the USD weakness.

    Our latest podcast is titled Everything you need to know for September

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    Further reading:

    • EUR/USD forecast – for everything related to the euro.
    • GBP/USD forecast – Pound/dollar predictions
    • USD/JPY forecast – projections for dollar/yen
    • USD/CAD forecast – Canadian dollar analysis
    • Forex weekly forecast – Outlook for the major events of the week.

    Safe trading!


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