BoE: Markets may be underestimating rate hike risks – ING

According to James Smith, Developed Markets Economist at ING, after the May Bank of England meeting (BoE), markets remained unconvinced we’ll see a rate hike this year.

Key Quotes

“We think this looks like a bit of an overreaction based on what policymakers have been hinting over recent months. With wage growth on the rise, the chances of an August rate hike might be underestimated, and we still narrowly think a rate hike is more likely than not over the summer.”

“But this is certainly not a done deal. The high street is still having a particularly tough time, and contrary to the Bank’s statement last week, suggests more than just snow prompted at least some of the first quarter lull.”

“Either way, whatever the Bank decides to do in August will depend heavily on economic data between now and then. With 78 days until the August meeting, here’s a round-up of some of the numbers that policymakers will be keeping an eye on, and how we think they’ll move.”


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