Canadian GDP – Trading with USD/CAD

  • Canada’s quarterly GDP report has a significant impact and moves the C$.
  • The Market Impact Tool shows trading opportunities in both upside and downside surprises on this event.
  • The USDCAD moved, on average, 13 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 39 pips in the following 4 hours. 

Selling USD/CAD Scenario

  • Tradable Positive Trigger: +1.02 deviation (0.22) [SELL Pair]
  • Key Support Level: 1.2970

This time, if it comes out at higher than expected with a relative deviation of 1.02 or higher(0.22 or higher in actual terms), the pair may go down reaching a range of 35  pips in the first 15 minutes and 74 pips in the following 4 hours.

Below the round number of 1.3000, we find 1.2970 that supported the pair in mid-September and during August. 1.2880 is a double-bottom after serving as support in both late September and late August. 1.2820 dates back to May.

Buying USD/CAD Scenario

  • Tradable Negative Trigger: -0.82 deviation (2.64 ) [BUY Pair]
  • Key Resistance Level:

If it comes out lower than expected at a relative deviation of -1.07 or less(-0.02 or lower in actual terms), the USDCAD may go up reaching a range of 45 pips in the first 15 minutes and 83 pips in the following 4 hours.

1.3100 was a support line in September and resistance in August. 1.3175 capped the pair in early August. 1.32220 was a swing high in early September.

USD/CAD Levels on the Chart

More data

Canada’s economy stalled in June after upbeat figures in the previous months. The first month of Q3 is projected to see an increase of 0.2% MoM. The US trade tariffs will probably be felt.

See: Canadian GDP Preview: Expecting a positive first peek into Q3, USD/CAD set to move

In the last five releases, the USDCAD moved, on average, 13 pips in the 15 minutes after the data release and 39 pips in the following 4 hours. The previous release had a negative surprise of -0.83 in terms of relative deviation and the USDCAD reached a 16 pip range in the first 15 minutes and a range of 44 pips 4 hours thereafter.

Follow the publication of the figure on the economic calendar. Watch out for the data from the Market Impact tool, projecting the potential price changes according to the deviation. Here is the Market Impact Studies Users Guide.


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