Martijn Rats, Morgan Stanley’s global oil strategist, said in a research note earlier this week, the surging demand for diesel and jet fuel will help push Brent prices to $90 a barrel in 2020, as cited by CNBC.
The investment bank previously forecast Brent would average about $65 in each of the four quarters of 2020.
“Over the next few years, we expect tightness in one particular product — middle distillate — to lead to strength in one particular liquid, crude oil, and especially those crudes that look like Brent,” Rats noted.
According to the bank’s estimates, global crude oil output would need to grow by 5.7 million barrels a day by 2020 to meet growing distillate consumption. Morgan Stanley does not think that’s possible.
Rats said: “We see global crude production re-accelerating again, but falling well short of this level. Since 1984, crude oil production growth over a 3-year period has reached this level only once.”