Cryptos: 3 scenarios for the Direxion Bitcoin ETF decision

  • Direxioמ’s Bitcoin ETF request is a high profile one and is set to move all cryptocurrencies.
  • The deadline delay raises the stakes for the upcoming decision as coins await impatiently.
  • The reactions are different in three different scenarios and for each of the three top coins.

On July 24th, the US Securities and Exchange Commission announced a delay in the decision to approve or disapprove the Bitcoin ETF decision to September 21st. The decision was a disappointment from cryptos that had already suffered from a decision regarding A similar suggestion from VanEck.

Why are Exchange Traded Funds so significant? Basically, ETF’s open the gates for mainstream traders, investors, and speculators to dive into the world of cryptos. By investing in an ETF, the managers of that ETF would need to buy the underlying asset, thus Bitcoin.

More: Bitcoin ETF explained: 9 questions and answers about the critical crypto catalyst

The previous high-profile ETF request came from ProShares, but it was entirely different in its nature. In ProShare’s case, the underlying asset was Bitcoin futures, not Bitcoin itself. The impact will, therefore, be quite different in Direxion’s case.

Here are three scenarios for the decision and the reactions.

1) Approval

A first break of the Crypto ETF glass ceiling would be great news for cryptocurrencies, and their prices would rise. Bitcoin would be the primary beneficiary as the ETF is directly tied to it and not to others. Bitcoin is enjoying upside momentum against the Altcoins for some time, and this would only strengthen the trend.

Ethereum, Ripple, and others would also be carried away. Money flowing into Bitcoin could perpetuate other cryptocurrencies. Some of the funds entering Bitcoin will push old money out, and this old money may look for the next growth opportunities. Also, speculation about the next Crypto ETF will begin arising. If Bitcoin can get an ETF, which one will be next?

2) Delay

A delay has hurt cryptocurrencies many times in the recent past. The reaction would be no different, but the drop may be somewhat muted as this ETF request has already suffered a delay. A postponement of this decision could come along one for the VanEck decision on September 30th. It is hard to see the SEC delay one decision and not do the same for the other one.

The closer the new date is, the weaker the drop in cryptos. A push back to October would slightly weigh on Bitcoin while a delay to December would be more painful. The reaction in the BTC/USD will likely be similar to the one in the ETH/USD and the XRP/USD.

3) Rejection

Rejections have also been commonplace and have sent prices lower. The drop may be especially painful as Direxion is a high-profile ETF and the tension rose after the decision was delayed back in July. Expectations for the September 30th decision will likely fall, but perhaps the hopes for a different outcome nine days later could slightly mitigate the drop.

Bitcoin will likely suffer more than other cryptocurrencies, as it was propped up by expectations for ETF approval. While Ethereum and Ripple will likely drop, they will probably gain against Bitcoin.

More: Socialized clawback at the crypto-exchange? Time to consider a different way of trading – 4 advantages of trading cryptos with a broker


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