EUR: potential end-of-year moves against USD, GBP, JPY

The euro had a positive week to end November. How will it end 2017? Here are two views that look at the single currency, looking into EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, and EUR/GBP.

Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:

EUR/USD: 1.21 Again By Christmas; EUR/JPY: Long Attractive With Tight Stop – SocGen

Societe Generale Cross Asset Strategy Research discusses its outlook for EUR/USD and EUR/JPY going into year-end.

“EUR/USD has broken back out of its mini-range and while it did so in holiday-thinned markets, the odds are that we’ll see 1.21 again this side of Christmas. Positioning charts suggest a certain wariness would be n order and relative yields ones provide ample to reason to doubt the break.

And while we’re on it, long EUR/JPY with a tight stop is a pretty attractive trade to start the week too. The USD/JPY chart suggests that yen strength is unlikely to go too far, unless China triggers broader risk aversion,” SocGen argues.

EUR/GBP: ‘Levels Just Above 0.88 Should Be Used To Re-Enter Longs’ – Nordea

Nordea FX Strategy Research discusses EUR/GBP outlook, arguing that the weaker UK housing market is among the macro reasons for being bearish on GBP through 2018.

“The price trend on the housing market in the UK is amongst the worst in G-10 and in the UK the link between lower house prices and weaker consumption is also evident from recent retail sales trends. But the down-turn in house prices have yet to showcase itself in a risk-premium in the Sterling this time around.

Weaker housing thus adds to the list of risks for the Sterling heading into 2018, where the UK economy will have to stand on its own two feet, as the tailwind from FX and interest rate effects will abate. We look for levels around 0.91 in EUR/GBP, while levels just above 0.88 should be used to re-enter longs, if revisited,” Nordea argues.

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