EUR/USD: Could See 1.1750 This Week Before Breaking Out Of Range In August – SocGen

EUR/USD is stuck in a range for a long time. What’s next? A breakout may be close.

Here is their view, courtesy of eFXdata:

Societe Generale Cross Asset Strategy Research discusses EUR/USD outlook and notes that prices need to close above 1.1690 by the end of play tomorrow to avoid a fourth consecutive monthly fall – the longest run since the 9-month fall in 2014/2015.

“That said, if we close here, it will be a third monthly close within a 0.25% range, which tells its own story. CFTC data show that after a very sharp reduction in net long euro positions in May/June, these have stabilized. The last 2 months have also seen 10year yield differentials meander in a 10bp range, so the real problem is a lack of new macro drivers,” SocGen argues.

“This week’s candidates for that come in the form of Q2 Eurozone GDP tomorrow (we expect a 0.5% gain, as the soft patch recedes into the rear-view mirror) and the FOMC (where no-one expects a hike this week, but almost everyone expects one in September).

EUR/USD can react more to positive euro news now than to negative, and so we have a chance of getting to EUR/USD 1.1750 and above this week and making a move out of the current range in August,” SocGen adds.

For lots more FX trades from major banks, sign up to eFXplus

By signing up to eFXplus via the link above, you are directly supporting Forex Crunch.


Leave a Reply

Яндекс.Метрика