EUR/USD: ECB To Sound More Hawkish In Early 2018; Flows To Push For Further EUR Gains – CIBC

Euro/dollar is rising once again, holding its ground above 1.19. There are reasons for optimism if we look at the German GDP data as well as other figures. What’s next for the ECB? Here is the view from CIBC:

Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:

CIBC FX Strategy Research discusses its EUR/USD outlook going into 2018, from the ECB policy front, and the flows perspective.

“We expect the Governing Council to at least sound more hawkish by early 2018. Assuming political risks don’t materialize, that should gradually move the needle on both longer-term rates and the currency.

Widespread negative yields have prevented many key investors, including foreign central banks, from buying new euro-denominated paper, and even a turn to modestly positive yields would generate some rebalancing in the euro’s favour.

We target a 1.22 euro by mid-year 2018,” CIBC argues.

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