EUR/USD Forecast Feb. 12-16 2018 – On shaky ground

EUR/USD was under pressure as stock markets tanked and Draghi did not provide a helping hand. What’s next? GDP figures stand out.  Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

The crash of stock markets on Monday set the tone for the rest of the week, with the euro rising and falling on the fortunes of Wall Street. ECB President Mario Draghi said that he could not declare victory on inflation, keeping the pressure on the single currency. Services PMIs continue looking good, and so do most other economic indicators. In the US, the good news continued with a strong ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI.

Updates:

EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  • French Private Payrolls: Tuesday, 7:45. The preliminary quarterly report for France’s labor market is expected to show a gain of 0.2% after 0.3% beforehand.
  • German GDP: Wednesday, 7:00. We already have a preliminary estimate of euro-zone GDP, but that did not include the largest economy: Germany. The locomotive of the euro-zone saw a very robust growth rate of 0.8% in Q3 2017. We will now get an estimate for the Q4 and the full year. Q4 carries expectations for 0.6%.
  • German Final CPI: Wednesday, 7:00. The initial read of German inflation for January showed a monthly drop of 0.7%. The final figure will likely confirm the first print.
  • Jens Weidmann talks Wednesday, 8:00. The President of the German central bank will speak in Frankfurt and may provide further hints about the next steps around the ECB’s QE program and may react to the GDP figures. In his previous public appearance, he said that QE should not last for too long given rising growth.
  • Italian GDP: Wednesday, 9:00. The third-largest economy in the euro-zone saw growth of 0.4% in Q3, still lagging behind its peers. A stronger growth rate of 0.5% is on the cards for Q4.
  • Flash GDP: Wednesday, 10:00. The euro-zone enjoyed robust growth during 2017. The preliminary read for Q4 showed a growth rate of 0.6%, and this is expected to be confirmed now. However, any significant surprise in Germany’s numbers could shift expectations for this release.
  • Industrial Production: Wednesday, 10:00. The figure is published in Germany the larger countries had already released their data. Nevertheless, surprises are quite common with this publication. An increase of 0.1% is forecast after a more significant increase of 1% beforehand.
  • Trade Balance: Thursday, 10:00. The euro-zone enjoys a wide trade surplus thanks to Germany’s exports. A level of 22.6 billion is predicted for December after 22.5 billion in November.
  • German WPI: Friday, 7:00. The Wholesale Price Index fell by 0.3%, indicating price drops in the pipeline. An increase of 0.2% is on the cards now.
  • :* All times are GMT

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    Euro/dollar started the week capped by the 1.2490 level mentioned last week. It then slipped and collapsed.

    Technical lines from top to bottom:

    1.2537 is the peak in late January 2018 that didn’t hold for a long time. 1.2450 was a temporary cap for the pair in January 2018.

    1.2350 provided support to the pair in early February and now switches to resistance. 1.22 is a round number and also a level of comfort in February.

    The 2017 peak of 1.2090 remains essential. 1.20 is the obvious round level and also worked as resistance in September.

    1.1950 was the high level seen in November and a stepping stone towards 1.20. 1.1860 capped the pair in August and in October while working as support in September.

    I remain bearish on EUR/USD

    The risk-off sentiment is likely to continue, with further volatility and drops in stock markets. While the euro may weather the storm better than some of its peers, the weight is quite substantial. After stock markets calm, the common currency has plenty of reasons to rise, but winter is not over yet.

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    Further reading:

    • GBP/USD forecast – Pound/dollar predictions
    • USD/JPY forecast – analysis for dollar/yen
    • AUD/USD forecast – the outlook for the Aussie dollar.
    • USD/CAD forecast – Canadian dollar predictions
    • Forex weekly forecast – Outlook for the major events of the week.

    Safe trading!


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