EUR/USD Forecast Feb. 19-23 2018 – Roller coaster ride

EUR/USD had a roller coaster week, trading in a range of over 300 pips and eventually ending the week higher. What’s next? The upcoming week features the ECB minutes, PMI data, and final inflation figures.  Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

German and euro-zone GDP releases came out at 0.6%, as widely expected, confirming strong growth. The drama came from the US inflation report. At first, the dollar gained as inflation was seen as rising, but it quickly turned around and plunged. Wednesday’s drama was followed by another one on Friday. The pair reached a 3-year high at 1.2555 before dropping nearly 150 pips. The high volatility may extend to another week.


EUR/USD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  • Current Account: Monday, 9:00. The euro-zone enjoys a big current account surplus thanks to German exports. A small slide is forecast now: 30.5 billion against 32.5 billion last time.
  • Bundesbank Monthly Report: Monday, 11:00. The Bundesbank, Germany’s central bank, releases a monthly report about the economy. The recent reports have been upbeat, stressing strong growth. A similar outlook is likely now.
  • German PPI: Tuesday, 7:00. The Producer Price Index is expected to show a faster pace of price rises. After 0.2% in December, an increase of 0.5% is projected in January. Germany’s Wholesale Price Index surprised to the upside.
  • German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Tuesday, 10:00. The ZEW institute publishes an early release of its survey, for the month of February. After a surprising rise to 20.4 points in January, a slide to 16.5 points is likely now.
  • Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 15:00. EuroStat’s consumer confidence measure had been negative for many years, reflecting pessimism. It reached positive territory and is projected to remain at the same level: 1 point, also in the current survey.
  • Flash PMIs: Wednesday, 8:00 for France, 8:30 for Germany and 9:00 for the whole euro-zone. Markit’s Flash figures for February are forward-looking and tend to foresee tendencies. France had a score of 58.4 points for its manufacturing sector in January, well above the 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction. A small drop to 58.2 points is predicted. The services sector is expected to see a minor slide from 59.2 to 59.1 points. Germany’s manufacturing sector is experiencing high growth, with a score of 61.1 points. A slide to 60.7 is on the cards. The services sector is predicted to edge down from 57.3 to 57.2 points. The euro-zone is forecast to have a small drop from 59.6 to 59.4 points in manufacturing and from 58 to 57.7 in services.
  • German Ifo Business Climate: Thursday, 9:00. IFO is Germany’s No. 1 Thiink-tank. The score in its wide survey reached 117.6 in January. A drop to 117.2 is on the cards now. Note that if the headline figure meets expectations, the other data, such as the Current Condition and the Expectations may have their say.
  • ECB Meeting Minutes: Thursday, 12:30. The European Central Bank left its policy unchanged in the January meeting. They also refrained from providing any guidance on the next steps in the QE program. The minutes from that meeting will likely convey the same old message: good growth, but low inflation. A focus on growth could send the euro higher while a focus on inflation would send it lower. Any talk about changing the communication, hinting about the end of QE, would help push the euro higher.
  • German Final GDP: Friday, 7:00. The final German GDP release is expected to confirm the previous read of 0.6% q/q growth. The locomotive of the euro-zone grew by an even faster clip in Q3: 0.8%.
  • Final CPI: Friday, 10:00. Headline inflation has been grinding lower, slipping to 1.3% in the preliminary read for January. However, core inflation enjoyed a small rise to 1% after a few months of disappointments. The final figures will likely confirm the initial ones.
  • * All times are GMT

    EUR/USD Technical Analysis

    Euro/dollar had a spell with the lows of 1.22, mentioned last week. It then turned to the upside, topping the previous high of 1.2537, but quickly retreated.

    Technical lines from top to bottom:

    1.2650 is where the long-term downwards resistance level dating from 2008 meets this month’s levels. Further below, the recent swing high of 1.2555 may serve as resistance.

    1.2537 is the peak in late January 2018 that didn’t hold for a long time. 1.2450 was a temporary cap for the pair in January 2018.

    1.2350 provided support to the pair in early February and now switches to resistance. 1.22 is a round number and also a level of comfort in February.

    The 2017 peak of 1.2090 remains essential. 1.20 is the obvious round level and also worked as resistance in September.

    1.1950 was the high level seen in November and a stepping stone towards 1.20. 1.1860 capped the pair in August and in October while working as support in September.

    I remain bearish on EUR/USD

    While the euro-zone economies look strong, the turmoil in markets may be far from over. Another fall in stocks and/or some hawkish talk from the Fed may send the dollar higher.

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    Further reading:

    • GBP/USD forecast – Pound/dollar predictions
    • USD/JPY forecast – analysis for dollar/yen
    • AUD/USD forecast – the outlook for the Aussie dollar.
    • USD/CAD forecast – Canadian dollar predictions
    • Forex weekly forecast – Outlook for the major events of the week.

    Safe trading!

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