EUR/USD: is it in overbought territory? And can Draghi drag it down?

EUR/USD is trading comfortably above the 1.24 level thanks to the dollar’s weakness, especially on top of the Steven Slide. The strong exchange rate is not what the ECB, convening later today, wants. We already wrote that Draghi’s dovishness could be a buying opportunity on EUR/USD. Here are four additional opinions:

Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:

EUR/USD: ‘Rally Starting To Feel A Bit Long In The Tooth’; What’s Next? – ING

ING Research discusses EUR/USD outlook ahead of the ECB meeting tomorrow, and reiterates its view (see here) that it might prove slightly difficult for President Mario Draghi and his colleagues to argue against the fact that the recent move higher in the EUR has been supported by fundamentals.

“EUR/USD trading above 1.23 ahead of the ECB event does feel a bit ‘long in the tooth’ (for now), but we would see any move lower as a technical correction – rather than a new trend.

Central bank meetings do not change fundamentals. EUR/USD to anchor around 1.23 today – with the ECB event risk to curb upside,” ING argues.

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EUR/USD: A Repeat Of Price-Action Of 2004 Could See EUR/USD Rally Overshoot N-Term – BTMU

BTMU Research discusses EUR/USD outlook, and notes that the USD sell off has been relentless since the middle of last month, and there appears no clear catalyst on the horizon to turn the tide in the near-term.

“Under current circumstances, there is a building risk that US dollar weakness could even begin to overshoot fundamentals in the near-term.

A repeat of price action from back in early 2004 can’t be completely ruled out. After breaking back above the 1.2000l-evel late in 2003, the euro continued to strengthen sharply against the US dollar towards the 1.3000 level in the opening months of 2004 before settling back into the 1.2000 to 1.2500 range, which is around where we currently estimate long-term fair value for the pair,” BTMU notes.

EUR/USD: ECB May Trigger A S/T Knee Jerk Response But Can’t Change Broad USD Weakness – NAB

NAB Research discusses EUR/USD outlook ahead of tomorrow’s ECB meeting and notes that while  the pair is is over 3.5% higher from since the last ECB meeting Minutes were released, its recent rally reflects the broadly weakening USD.

“This suggests the ECB won’t be overly concerned about the EUR’s current trade-weighted level and there is little it can do about broader USD weakness outside of the very short-term knee-jerk response.

We’d still expect Draghi to repeat the warning over exaggerated exchange rate moves as that could shave off some of the upward momentum,” NAB argues.

EUR/USD: Why The Market Is Getting It Wrong On The USD? – BofAML

Bank of America Merrill Research discusses the USD outlook in light of the currency’s recent decline and notes that the the USD has been sliding since September just as tax reform began to gain momentum and even the passage of tax reform failed to slow the USD‘s descent.

In this regard, BofAML notes that Wall Street, which was obsessed by tax reform for most of 2017, seems decidedly unimpressed by its passage.

“A major reason for the slide of the USD in the face of tax reform is that the market has come to believe that most of the $3.5trn of foreign earnings that US companies are sitting on is already in USD. The new consensus is that repatriation flows will do no good for the USD,” BofAML adds. 

“We think it is reasonable to assume that at least 30% of the $3.5trn of the foreign earnings are in foreign currencies and that 30% of the money will be repatriated this year. This amounts to $300bn, equivalent to about half of the capital inflows required to finance the current account deficit this year. 

This is a pretty big number but if it gets done in the first 6 months of the year, this would be extremely bullish for the USD. This is why we continue to feel comfortable with our 1.10 EUR/USD forecast for end-Q1,” BofAML argues. 

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