GBP: Where To Position Ahead Of The Important EU Summit On Dec 14-15 – Nomura

The pound is not going anywhere fast amid OK economic data and Brexit worries. What’s next for the pound? The team at Nomura looks at the upcoming EU summit and the outlook for the pound also against the yen and the Swiss franc.

Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:

Nomura FX Strategy Research discusses GBP outlook ahead of the important EU summit on 14-15 December, arguing that GBP/CHF, and GBP/JPY set to gain in case of reaching an agreement between the UK and EU (Nomura’s base case), while they could face downside pressure in case of no deal.

“Our main scenario remains that the UK and EU reach an agreement on the transition deal, but in the near term UK politics will likely be the main driver of GBP.

…Now GBP’s negative reaction is more concentrated against the traditional safe-haven currencies, CHF and JPY.

Thus, if UK political uncertainty keeps rising, CHF and JPY will likely face appreciation pressure into the important EU summit on 14-15 December. If an agreement is reached then, we would a small relief rally in GBP/CHF and GBP/JPY,” Nomura argues.

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