GBP/USD Forecast Sep. 24-28 – Brexit roller coaster continues

GBP/USD had another volatile as top-tier figures competed with Brexit headlines and sent the pair in all directions. What’s next? The final GDP release stands out. Here are the key events and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

Brexit optimism around the Salzburg Summit was shattered when the EU rejected the Chequers proposal outright. The response of UK PM Theresa May was harsh as well, sending the pound down after it had climbed to two-month highs earlier. UK inflation jumped to 2.7%, far above expectations and sent the pound higher. The US went forward with imposing trade tariffs on China but markets took it with a stride pushing the greenback lower.

Updates:

GBP/USD daily graph with resistance and support lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  • FPC Statement: Monday, 6:8:30. The Bank of England is also responsible for financial stability in addition to setting monetary policy, and the two things are related. Financial stability depends on economic conditions. The quarterly report provides insights into the current economic situation and may move the pound.
  • CBI Industrial Order Expectations: Monday, 10:00. The Confederation of British Industry showed deteriorating conditions in the sector back in August, with the indicator dropping to 7 points after two months of positive surprises. A drop to 5 points is on the cards.
  • High Street Lending: Wednesday, 8:30. The gauge represents around two-thirds of UK mortgages and is released before the official mortgage number by the BOE. A disappointing slide below 40K was seen in July. We may now see a bounce from that 39.6K level. 39.7K is forecast now.
  • CBI Realized Sales: Wednesday, 10:00. The sales figure from CBI came out better than Order Expectations and hit a high of 29 points in August. We could see a slide now: 18 points are predicted.
  • GfK Consumer Confidence: Thursday, 23:01. The 2,000-strong survey beat expectations in August with a rise to -7 points, but the negative number still reflects pessimism among consumers. A tick down to -8 points is on the cards.
  • Final GDP: Friday, 8:30. The UK economy grew by 0.2% in Q2 according to the initial release that came alongside the first monthly report for June. While we already know the monthly number for July, this final release of Q2 GDP is expected to provide a broader outlook on the economy. The quarterly figures don’t usually change but revisions to the weekly numbers are more common.
  • Current Account: Friday, 8:30. The UK has a chronic trade balance and current account deficits. In Q1, the deficit narrowed to 17.7 billion. We will now get the number for Q2 alongside the GDP report. A significant surprise may steal the show from the GDP report. A broader deficit of 19.4 billion is on the cards.
  • * All times are GMT

    GBP/USD Technical analysis

    Pound/dollar had a volatile week and it was rejected at the 1.3215 level (mentioned last week). It then climbed higher and hit 1.3300 before plunging back down to the 1.30 handle.

    Technical lines from top to bottom:

    1.3375 was a high point in July. It is followed by 1.3315 that capped the pair earlier that month.

    1.3215 was the high point for the pair in mid-July and a lower high on the chart. It is followed by mid-September peak of 1.3145.

    1.3045 was a high point in August and also close to the initial 2018 low.

    Below 1.3000 we find 1.2935, a high point in late August. 1.2865 separated ranges in late August. Further down, 1.2790 served as support late August and also beforehand.

    1.2750 held the pair down when the pair was on the back foot. The current 2018 trough at 1.2660 is the next level.

    1.2590 was a swing low in September 2017. Even lower, 1.25 is a round number and also worked as support in early 2017.

    I am bearish on GBP/USD

    While PM Theresa May may eventually give in to EU demands, it will come only after the Conservative Party Conference that ends on October 3rd. The upcoming week could see a tough stance from both sides, catering to their audiences.

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    Further reading:

    • EUR/USD forecast – for everything related to the euro.
    • USD/JPY forecast – projections for dollar/yen
    • AUD/USD forecast – predictions for the Aussie dollar.
    • USD/CAD forecast – Canadian dollar analysis
    • Forex weekly forecast – Outlook for the major events of the week.

    Safe trading!


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