GBP/USD: To 1.50 or will the rally end with some USD strength?

The pound reached levels last seen before the Brexit vote back in 2016. Can it continue even higher? Or is it limited? Here are two different opinions:

Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:

EUR/USD: Consolidation Into Next Week’s ECB; GBP/USD: 1.40 In Q1 En-Route To 1.50 – ING

ING Research discusses EUR/USD outlook and notes that the focus into next week’s ECB meeting is whether President Mario Draghi is able to tame the hawks and shift market expectations away from an early and abrupt end to ECB QE in September.

“We tend to favour EUR/USD consolidation into next week’s ECB meeting, with a slight preference for a move back to the 1.2100 area short term,” ING adds.

On GBP/USD, ING note that the Cable got quite close to their 1.40 target for 1Q18 last night, largely on the back of dollar weakness.

“That is our key story for 2018, GBP largely holding steady against the EUR, but Cable being dragged to 1.50 on our EUR/$ call,” ING argues.

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GBP/USD: Still Largely A USD Depreciation Story Than A GBP Positive Story: What’s Next? – BTMU

BTMU Research discusses GBP/USD outlook and notes that the pound is grabbing more of the headlines in recent days and there has been some GBP specific gains recorded with EUR/GBP moving lower since the start of the year despite another lurch higher in EUR/USD.

“But the move higher in GBP/USD is still largely a dollar depreciation story rather than a GBP positive story. EUR/GBP is today trading at around the same level as back in June last year – a time when EUR/USD was trading some ten big figures lower at around 1.1200. The pound is only marginally stronger on a BoE trade-weighted basis over the same period – advancing from around 76.500 to 78.000 – around a 2% gain,” BTMU argues.

“Our reasoning for our bullish GBP/USD forecast for end-2018 (1.4700) is that we expect this year to be the year when the pound actually corrects on an outright basis for the first time since the Brexit referendum,” BTMU projects.

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