US Core PCE Price Index rises 1.4% y/y as expected – USD looks good

US data looks good, extending the trend. The core PCE Price Index rose by 0.2% m/m and enjoyed an upwards revision. Year over year, it stands at 1.4%, as expected. Jobless claims slipped to 238K and other figures are looking OK as well.

The US dollar is edging higher across the board, but the moves aren’t huge.

Data (updated)

  • Jobless claims: previous: 239K, expected 240K, actual: 238K
  • Core PCE Price Index m/m: prev. +0.1%, exp. +0.2%, actual: 0.2%, with an upwards revision. Year over year, it is 1.4% and now also 1.4% for the previous month.
  • Personal income: prev. +0.4%, exp. +0.3%, actual: +0.4%
  • Personal consumption: prev. 1%, exp. +0.3%, actual:  0.3%

The US dollar got more reasons to rise.

On the last day of November, the US released quite a few pieces of economic indicators. The Fed’s favorite inflation figure, the Core PCE Price Index, is the most important one amid a slowdown in inflation worldwide.

The US dollar was doing well ahead of the publication, with the imminent approval of a big tax cut serving as a trigger. Yellen’s upbeat testimony and the upgrade of GDP to 3.3% certainly add some tailwind.

We will later get the Chicago PMI alongside speeches by two FOMC members: Quarles and Kaplan. Tomorrow, December 1st, we will get the first hint towards the NFP, with the publication of the ISM Manufacturing PMI.

More: Powell signals continuation – but of which type?


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