US CPI Carried No Reason For Fed To Get More Aggressive – CIBC

The US reported a core inflation rate of 0.2% m/m and 1.8% y/y, exactly as expected and not really exciting. What does this mean for the Fed and the US Dollar?

Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:

CIBC Research discusses the reaction to today’s US CPI data for the month of February.

“You can take a quick look at the US CPI numbers, and only a quick look, because this month had no surprises for the market to chew on. Both headline and core prices rose an on-trend 0.2% in February, with the 2.2% headline rate for the last 12 months, and the 1.8% core, both matching consensus.

Tame core goods prices (only 0.1% this month, and -0.5% yr/yr) continue to keep inflation at bay, a reflection of the remaining global economic slack offsetting a tightening US economy. Next month’s CPI is likely to generate a few more headlines, as a big drop in cell phone fees from the prior year drops out of the 12 month rate.

Still, with core PCE prices still comfortably below target, the Fed has no reason to get any more aggressive on rate hikes than its current dot plot forecast already builds in,” CIBC argues.

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