USD/CAD Forecast Nov. 27 – Dec. 1 2017

Dollar/CAD traded in range amid mixed movements from oil prices and from local data. The upcoming week features the all-important OPEC meetings, a speech by Poloz, and GDP. Here are the highlights and an updated technical analysis for USD/CAD.

The price of oil resumed its rally, with WTI topping $58. However, Canada’s domestic data was quite disappointing: manufacturing sales dropped by 1.2% and retail sales advanced by only 0.1%. This limited any attempts for a breakthrough by the Canadian dollar. The softer USD, due to worries about inflation, helped keep things stable.

Updates:

USD/CAD daily chart with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:

  • RMPI: Tuesday, 13:30. The Raw Materials Price Index returned to falling after one month of reprieve. A slide of 0.1% was seen in September. The number is of importance due to Canada’s oil exports.
  • BOC Financial System Review: Tuesday, 15:30, with Poloz talking at 16:15. The Bank of Canada’s financial stability report is less about stability in the current upbeat economic environment, but more about forecasts and what this implies for monetary policy. A worsening growth and inflation outlook could send imply no rate hikes in 2018, weakening the Canadian dollar. A more upbeat assessment could support the C$.
  • OPEC Meetings: Wednesday, the statement usually expected between 14:00 and 16:00. Ministers of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries convene in Vienna to discuss the levels of output. A deal between OPEC and a few non-OPEC counterparts, namely Russia, managed to curb production and stabilize the oil market after the big falls. They have extended the pact in recent meetings and a similar move is like now. If OPEC decides to open the floodgates, the C$ will suffer.
  • Current Account: Thursday, 13:30. Contrary to the narrower trade balance, Canada’s current account is in deficit. In Q2, the deficit stood at 16.3 billion, wider than beforehand. A similar figure is likely for Q3.
  • GDP: Friday, 13:30. After an excellent first half, things have significantly slowed down in the third quarter of 2017. A drop of 0.1% was reported for August. We now get the data for September, thus concluding Q3. Is this already a better month? Canada is unique in publishing GDP data on a monthly basis.
  • Canadian jobs report Friday, 13:30. Canada publishes its employment report before the US, something that does not happen very often. In October, Canada reported a healthy gain of 35.3K jobs but the unemployment rate ticked up to 6.3%. We may see a slide in the number of positions now.
  • Manufacturing PMI: Friday, 14:30. Markit’s manufacturing PMI is relatively stable in recent months. It stood at 54.3 points in October, above the 50-point threshold that separates contraction from expansion.
  • * All times are GMT

    USD/CAD Technical Analysis

    Dollar/CAD was initially capped by the 1.2790 level (discussed last week).

    Technical lines from top to bottom:

    1.3160 provided support back in June. 1.3080 was a line of resistance to the pair in its recovery attempts in July.

    1.2920 capped the pair in late October. It is followed by 1.2840 capped the pair in mid-November and also had a role in the past.

    1.2790 was the high in mid-November and serves as resistance. 1.2665 was a was a double-bottom in November and works as strong support.

    It is followed by 1.26, a round number that worked as resistance in October. 1.2540 capped the pair in early October when it traded in a narrow range.

    1.2435 was a cushion for the pair during the month of October. 1.2335 gave support to the pair in late September.

    1.22 is a round number and also worked as support a few years ago. 1.2065 is the (current) swing low of September 2017. It is followed by the obvious level of 1.20.

    I remain bullish on USD/CAD

    While OPEC could lift the oil prices and the loonie, the economy is slowing down and this could weigh on the C$ once again.

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    Further reading:

    • EUR/USD forecast – for everything related to the euro.
    • GBP/USD forecast – Pound/dollar predictions
    • USD/JPY forecast – analysis for dollar/yen
    • AUD/USD forecast – projections for the Aussie dollar.
    • Forex weekly forecast – Outlook for the major events of the week.

    Safe trading!


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