Yesterday we published a view of the next moves in the C$, pointing to the downside. Here is another opinion, also supporting the downtrend in CAD, or uptrend in USD/CAD:
Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:
CIBC FX Strategy Research discusses USD/CAD outlook and notes that while talk of a BoC December rate hike has faded, investors are still pricing in an almost 30% probability that the BoC moves again in the first month of 2018.
“That seems too hasty. The Bank pledged to monitor how the economy is doing post-September before moving again. After a significant deceleration in Q3, Canada won’t have Q4 GDP data available until early March, and uncertainties for capital spending tied to stalemated NAFTA talks, large minimum wages increases, and new mortgage rules that begin in January have clouded the economic outlook
Those are all good reasons for the Bank of Canada to stand pat until at least April, when the NAFTA talks will be winding up and more clarity on whether conditions are ripe for the Fed to resume tightening should be available,” CICB argues.
“Look for USD/CAD to reach 1.33 in the first quarter as the NAFTA talks reach a climax,” CIBC projects.
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