USD/JPY: To 100 or back to 110? Two opinions

USD/JPY fell to a 15-month low and is already trading at the 105 handle. The yen did not suffer from the expected reappointment of Haruhiko Kuroda to lead the BOJ. What’s next? Here are two opinions:

Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:

USD/JPY: Still A Sell On Rallies Targeting 2016 Lows Around 100 – Credit Suisse

Credit Suisse discusses USD/JPY outlook and maintains its medium-term bearish view and its sell-on-rallies strategy.

“We had written about the risk that the yen might strengthen two weeks ago; when we restated our preference for selling rallies on USDJPY and also suggested selling high beta currencies like GBP and AUD vs JPY and CHF – views we still hold,” CS advises.

Medium term we can see USDJPY moving towards 2016 lows around 100.

Since then we find that the reasons to be bullish on yen have actually increased: 1) US fiscal outlook has deteriorated even further….2) BOJ governor Kuroda was reappointed for another term,” CS argues.

USD/JPY: Japanese Corp & Inst Investors Likely To Sell Bounce Above 110 Into March – Deutsche Bank

Deutsche Bank Research discusses USD/JPY amid its recent decline and notes that:

1- While Japanese pension funds, life insurers and other institutional investors have thus far bought on dips from around 110 and below, their buying has been far from aggressive this time.

2- Overseas speculators still maintain relatively large USD/JPY long positions, and look unlikely to increase them in the near term in line with rising US rates.

3- Japanese corporates and institutional investors likely reduce or avoid risk approaching March-end via selling on rebounds above around 110 which could increasingly act to suppress upside.

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