Will the ECB send EUR/USD higher or lower? 5 opinions

The European Central Bank’s decision is coming tomorrow and the fresh dollar weakness sent EUR/USD to new three-year highs ahead of the publication. In our preview, we discussed a buying opportunity on the EUR/USD around the ECB. Here are 5 more opinions:

Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews:

EUR/USD: 3 Reasons Why Draghi’s Tone On Thurs Could Tame EUR Upside Rather Than Send It Lower – ING

ING Research discusses EUR/USD outlook into the ECB policy meeting on Thursday, and expects President Draghi to convey a rather dovish message and tame the market’s hawkish fantasies (at least for now).

“The likely cautious tone of the ECB meeting should put a limit on the scale of EUR upside rather than driving it lower. This is because

(1) even on the very short term valuation basis, the EUR/USD still remains modestly undervalued;

(2) market’s base case of a cautious ECB tone, following the comments of various ECB board members;

(3) solid EZ economic outlook and the recent data upside surprises have lowered the credibility of the threat for further and material QE extension,” ING adds.

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EUR/USD: A ‘Tricky’ ECB Meeting; Will Draghi Walk The EUR Lower? – BofAML

Bank of America Merrill Lynch Research discusses the ECB policy meeting on Thursday and notes that President Draghi’s press conference this week will not be an easy one.

“Still, we would expect Draghi to emphasize that any changes to forward guidance will only be gradual and that the sequencing (rate hikes only after net QE purchases are over) is something that will not be altered. Those expecting rate hikes at the end of this year may end up being disappointed.

Finally, we do not expect any major change to forward guidance this week apart from the removal of the asymmetry in QE, which we do not think would be consequential.

On EUR/USD, BofAML still holds the view that the cyclical outperformance of the EUR may have run its course and believes the single currency is vulnerable to comments from President Draghi during the Q&A session who may take the opportunity to address the recent appreciation. The risks are that he sounds more sanguine,” BofAML adds.

EUR/USD: Some Profit Taking Possible Into ECB But Dips Likely To Be Shallow – Barclays

Barclays Capital Research discusses EUR/USD outlook into the ECB policy meeting on Thursday.

“We expect no change in policy and look for President Draghi to deliver a balanced message which does not dismiss discussions around forward guidance changes in the coming months but still reinforces the broadly very accommodative outlook and curbs unwanted EUR strength.

In that respect, we expect some profit taking of long EURUSD positioning ahead of the meeting. Nonetheless, we expect dips to be shallow, consistent with our view of broadly range-bound EURUSD centred on current levels,” Barclays argues. (see here)

EUR/USD: The Case For EUR Strength Is Firming; New EUR/USD Targets – ANZ

ANZ Research has revised its view of near term EUR/USD weakness, and now sees further modest gains towards 1.24 in Q1, 1.25 in Q2, 1.27 in Q3, and 1.28 by year-end.

“The arguments in favour of euro strength are gathering pace as strong momentum in growth and positive political developments have boosted the exchange rate.

The break of last year’s high around 1.2060 is attracting buying interest. The rise in the oil price means that the anticipated sharp drop in euro area inflation early this year may not materialise. Growing hawkish tones from some senior members of the ECB’s Governing Council suggest that deflationary concerns over a stronger exchange rate are receding.

In addition, the ECB’s ability to cap the euro through suggestions of extended QE appear increasingly inappropriate. We have therefore brought forward our profile of moderate euro appreciation later this year. Positive developments in German coalition talks have also had a positive influence on the euro,” ANZ argues.

EUR/USD: Looking For Some Downside Pressure Into This Week’s ECB – Nordea

Nordea Research discusses EUR/USD outlook going into this week’s ECB policy meeting on Thursday, and thinks that the recent rise in EUR/USD and the pricing of the first (10bp) rate hike from the ECB are not in line with the still modest inflation pressures and the ECB’s dovish stance.

“In fact, the pricing of the first hike suggests an abrupt end to the APP after September and a rate just over three months later. Such course of action would not be in line with Draghi’s indications, the ECB’s past behaviour of trying to move as smoothly as possible or the forward guidance stating that rates will remain at present levels well past the horizon of the net asset purchases. Such pricing looks too aggressive.

While the market moves have not been sufficient to really worry the ECB, they are probably enough for Draghi to include a couple of dovish hints to his comments. We expect to see some downside pressure on the EUR and bond yields in response to the ECB’s immediate message this week,” Nordea argues.

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